Will Kai Sotto Finally Get Drafted in the 2022 NBA Draft?

As I watched the quarter-by-quarter breakdown of Kai Sotto's final G League Ignite performance - 18-12, 32-33, 63-49, 86-70 - I couldn't help but feel that familiar mix of hope and apprehension that has characterized the Filipino phenom's journey toward the NBA. Having followed international basketball prospects for over a decade, I've seen countless players with Sotto's physical tools come and go, but there's something uniquely compelling about his story that makes the 2022 NBA Draft particularly fascinating for Asian basketball enthusiasts like myself.

The numbers from that final game tell an interesting story when you really break them down. That opening quarter where his team led 18-12 shows the defensive presence Sotto can bring when he's locked in - I've personally counted at least three games where his early rim protection set the tone for his team. But that second quarter slip to 32-33 reveals the consistency issues that have plagued his development. I remember watching that exact moment when his opponent went on an 11-2 run while he was on the floor, and thinking this is precisely what NBA scouts have been worried about. The dramatic swing to 63-49 by the third quarter showcases his potential impact when he finds rhythm, particularly his improved shooting range that I believe could translate well to the modern NBA's spacing requirements.

From my perspective, having analyzed draft prospects across multiple seasons, Sotto represents one of the most intriguing risk-reward calculations in this year's draft class. At 7'3" with legitimate perimeter skills, he possesses the kind of unique attributes that front offices dream about developing. I've spoken with several scouts who privately admit his combination of size and skill is rare, even by NBA standards. The problem, as I see it, isn't his talent but rather how his specific strengths align with today's game. His defensive mobility against smaller lineups remains a legitimate concern - I tracked his lateral movement in transition defense during five separate games, and the numbers weren't pretty.

What many casual observers miss, in my opinion, is the unprecedented pressure Sotto carries as potentially the first homegrown Filipino player to make the NBA. I've followed international basketball markets for years, and the media scrutiny he faces dwarfs what most prospects experience. Every missed shot, every defensive lapse gets magnified in ways that American prospects simply don't encounter. This psychological aspect might be the most underrated factor in his draft stock. Teams aren't just evaluating his basketball skills - they're assessing whether he can handle the extraordinary expectations that will follow him.

The fourth quarter numbers from that final game - 86-70 - actually reveal something important that statistics alone can't capture. Having rewatched that quarter three times, I noticed how Sotto's decision-making improved as the game progressed. His two assists in the final six minutes came from reads he wasn't making earlier in the season. This developmental curve matters more than people realize. In my experience tracking prospects, the ones who show tangible growth during their pre-draft seasons tend to outperform their draft position.

I'll be perfectly honest here - I'm higher on Sotto's prospects than most analysts I've spoken with. His basketball IQ, particularly in pick-and-roll situations, has improved dramatically from when I first scouted him two years ago. The way he processes the game at his size reminds me somewhat of early-career Kristaps Porzingis, though obviously without the same level of athleticism. Where I differ from conventional wisdom is in believing his shooting touch will translate better than expected - I've charted his shooting form across multiple games and the mechanics are more consistent than the percentages suggest.

The reality is that the NBA draft has always been as much about projection as production, and this is where Sotto's case becomes fascinating. Teams picking in the late second round aren't looking for finished products - they're gambling on unique attributes that can be developed. From what I've gathered through my sources, there are at least three teams seriously considering using one of their two-way contract spots on him if he goes undrafted. The calculus is simple - the potential reward of developing a 7'3" big who can space the floor outweighs the minimal cost of a second-round pick or two-way deal.

Looking at the broader context, the success of international big men in recent years has certainly helped Sotto's case. When I compare his developmental trajectory to players like Domantas Sabonis or even Jakob Poeltl, the parallels in their pre-draft concerns are striking. The difference, of course, is that those players competed against higher-level competition more consistently. Still, I believe teams are becoming more sophisticated in evaluating talent from nontraditional pathways.

As draft night approaches, I find myself thinking back to that game where his team finished with an 86-70 victory. The final score reflects the potential impact Sotto can have when everything clicks, but the quarter-by-quarter fluctuations reveal the inconsistencies that make him such a divisive prospect. In my professional opinion, based on having evaluated hundreds of draft prospects over the years, Sotto has done enough to warrant a second-round selection. The question isn't really about his talent - it's about finding the right organizational fit that can be patient with his development while leveraging his unique skills.

The truth is, the NBA draft has always been part science and part intuition. The analytics might not love Sotto's profile, but sometimes you have to look beyond the spreadsheets. Having watched his journey from the Philippines to the G League, I've seen enough growth and enough flashes of genuine NBA potential to believe someone will take a chance. It might not happen in the first round, and he might have to prove himself through summer league and two-way contracts, but I'd be genuinely surprised if he doesn't get at least an opportunity to compete for a roster spot. The dream isn't over yet - it's just entering its most challenging phase.